Samuel Hemsley
Politics and International Relations student at the University of SheffieldAhead of Thursday’s pivotal General Election, Samuel Hemsley examines the seats to watch out for on election night.
With 104 constituencies stretching from Hereford to Grimsby, not only is the Midlands at the heart of the country, but it will also be at the centre of election night.
Many Tories, sensing the grim national picture, have focused their campaigns on local issues and achievements. Research from the Local Government Chronicle suggests that 65% of Levelling Up funding has gone to marginal seats. Examples include Mansfield, where Ben Bradley aims to retain his 16,000-seat majority, highlighting nearly £70 million in government funding for the town. Similarly, Brendan Clarke-Smith has emphasised Bassetlaw’s success in securing the multi-billion-pound STEP fusion project and the return of overnight A&E for children at Bassetlaw Hospital
Labour’s Local Candidate Strategy
To counter this incumbency advantage, Labour has adopted a strategy of selecting local candidates. In Bassetlaw, Labour has chosen Jo White, Deputy Leader of Bassetlaw District Council, and wife of former Labour MP John Mann. James Naish, another Bassetlaw councillor, will stand in Rushcliffe, while in Gedling, local councillor Michael Payne has been selected.
Local Council Issues in Tory Campaign
Local councils feature prominently in Tory campaign leaflets, as Conservative MPs contrast themselves against their Labour-run councils. Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak highlighted the precarious financial situations of Labour-controlled Birmingham and Nottingham City Councils during the final debate at Nottingham Trent University, a tactic Tory candidates will replicate in the campaign’s final days.
Labour’s Confidence from Local Election Success
This won’t dent Labour’s confidence, however. If the local elections are any indication, Labour looks set to win seats with substantial majorities. Labour gained control of Redditch council in May, raising hopes of overturning Rachel Mclean’s 16,000 majority, and reclaiming the seat once held by Jacqui Smith, the first female Home Secretary. In the East Midlands, Labour’s Clare Ward won 15 out of 17 council areas to become the first Mayor of the East Midlands Region.
Meanwhile, Labour secured the West Midlands Mayoralty despite the personal appeal of Andy Street, with Independent Akhmed Yakob, running on a pro-Palestine platform, taking 11.7% of the vote.
Independent and Minor Party Influences
Akhmed Yakoob may again prove a thorn in Labour’s side, running as an independent against Labour’s Shadow Justice Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, in Birmingham Ladywood. While pro-Palestine campaigns like Yakoob’s may not win, they aim to split the Muslim vote, potentially harming Labour. Chris Williamson, Deputy Leader of the Workers Party, will attempt a similar strategy in Derby South against Baggy Shanker, former Leader of Derby City Council.
Key Races and Potential Upsets
Another race to watch is in the Labour marginal seat of Leicester East. The Tories have gained substantial support within the Asian community, particularly the Hindu community, which makes up 37% of the constituency. Labour faces an uphill battle here, with 10 candidates standing, including five independents. Among them are former Labour MPs Keith Vaz, who served for 32 years, and Claudia Webb, both departing the Commons amid scandal. Labour also contends with internal strife after its central office suspended the Constituency Labour Party and deselected 19 councillors. If the Tories gain anywhere, it is likely to be in Leicester East.
Smaller Parties’ Chance
For smaller parties, the Midlands offers opportunities. The Liberal Democrats have one seat, North Shropshire, won in a 2021 by-election. The Greens’ focus on North Herefordshire, polling ahead of the Tories for the first time. Reform aims to retain their first MP, Lee Anderson, who defected from the Conservatives. It’s a four-way race in Ashfield between Reform, Labour, Conservatives, and the Ashfield Independents led by Jason Zadrozny. The Independents lead the local district council, but Zadrozny’s campaign is undermined by an impending criminal trial.
Labour’s Path to Victory
Overall, the scale of Labour’s success will hinge on their performance in the Midlands. Keir Starmer will be confident of reclaiming Red Wall seats like Bolsover and Stoke-on-Trent North, lost in 2019. However, to secure a comfortable majority, he needs to win back seats like Nuneaton and Erewash, Conservative strongholds since 2010.
Erewash now looks to be an interesting fight after the Reform candidate openly defected to the Conservatives over Reform’s racism scandals. If Labour achieves a landslide, even seats like Newark and Stratford-upon-Avon, with majorities over 20,000, could be at risk. For the Tories, the strategy will be to win over voters considering Reform or staying home, hoping to retain as many MPs as possible and establish a base for future rebuilding.
Final Thought
The Midlands is poised to be a critical battleground in this general election. With its diverse political landscape and numerous marginal seats, the region’s results will provide a clear indicator of the national mood and set the stage for the future of UK politics.
The outcome here could determine not only the balance of power but also the direction of key policy issues, from local governance to national priorities. As voters in the Midlands make their choices, they will shape the political landscape for years to come, making this election one of the most consequential in recent memory.
Labour’s potential resurgence, the Conservatives’ fight to maintain their hold, and the smaller parties’ efforts to carve out space all converge in this pivotal region, ensuring that all eyes will be on the Midlands come election night.
For more of Chamber’s electoral analysis, please click here,
