The Tories crashed, Labour soared, and Farage grinned from the sidelines. In a year that has seen the first Labour Government in 14 years, a new Conservative leader, and a reshuffling of the political landscape – we delve into the biggest happenings in British politics this year.
Election Year
2024 emerged as the biggest year for elections worldwide in history, with more than half the global population heading to the polls. Originally expected in Autumn, Rishi Sunak’s surprise July election delivered an astonishing defeat for the Conservatives, arguably the most defining political event of the decade.
The result was decisive – Keir Starmer was elected with a huge mandate, winning 412 seats, just shy of Blair’s 1997 performance, Labour’s biggest win in parliamentary terms, despite winning only 33.7% of the popular vote.
Amid a premiership marred by various Tory scandals, the cost-of-living crisis, and a failure to tackle immigration, voters firmly rejected the Conservatives, who suffered the biggest defeat ever in the party’s history. With only 121 MPs elected to parliament, the Tory vote share was less than half that of their 2019 performance, winning a mere 23.7% of the popular vote. So crushing was this defeat, that the night saw various high profile conservatives ousted from their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, former Prime Minister Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg, to name a few.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats emerged fairly reinvigorated up 64 seats to a total of 72. And Reform UK, which despite winning only 5 seats, achieved over 4 million votes, at 14.3% of the total vote share, playing a pivotal role in toppling Conservative majorities in hundreds of seats. In a historic night, voters firmly rejected the past 14 years of Conservative rule, resulting in a Labour majority of 172, giving Starmer the secure means to pursue his legislative agenda.
Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget
Setting the tone for the new Labour Government, Rachel Reeves’ October budget broke records as the most radical government spending programme in decades. The Chancellor raised spending by £70bn a year over the next 5 years, including a £22.6bn cash boost for the NHS in 2025-26.
Raising taxes by £40 billon, the Chancellor stuck to Labour’s manifesto pledge to not raise VAT, income tax or national insurance, instead turning to a £25 billion increase in employer national insurance contributions, higher rates of capital gains and inheritance tax, and changing the rules covering wealthy foreign individuals living in Britain.
Despite being hailed as a ‘budget for growth’ by the chancellor herself, the Office of Budget and Responsibility (OBR)’s assessment of the spending plan said the economy would expand at the same rate as predicted in March for the previous Conservative Government.
It goes without saying that raising nearly £40 billion without increases to income tax rates, VAT or national insurance is an impressive political feat, one that will play in Reeves’ favour from her promises not to tax ‘working people’. But the budget has not come without its backlash. Perhaps most publicly, there has been outrage from many groups following the abolition of exemptions on inheritance tax for farmland estates, providing ammunition for Conservative benches. Critics have also warned that higher national insurance contributions amount to a stealth ‘tax on jobs’, potentially undermining Labour’s growth agenda.
In the weeks prior, this budget was pre-empted by rhetoric from the frontbenches of a “22 billion black hole” in public finances left by the Conservative Government, with the Chancellor telling the BBC “this is not a budget we want to repeat”. Regardless, with 4 years forecast until the next general election if things go well for Labour, Starmer has been consistent in his emphasis that this will not be a “short-term government”. The full fiscal outcome of this budget may not be seen for years, if not decades, but we will start to see the effects of the new tax changes early next year.
A New Conservative Party
After a crushing defeat in the July general election, Kemi Badenoch beat rival Robert Jenrick to the top spot of the Conservative party. As the first black woman to lead a major UK political party, Badenoch has declared the party must return to its “first principles”, and has attempted to reposition the party further to the right.
There could have been no clearer indication to the humbled Conservative party than July’s election to show that a significant portion of voters have lost faith in the party. Polls of Tory voters have indicated that the party’s disunity, failure to tackle immigration, and failure to deliver on key promises were most instrumental in their downfall.
Both Badenoch and Jenrick, making it through to the final round of voting, made populist right-wing appeals to voters, scrapping any indication that the party may move towards the political centre. Badenoch’s campaign was unapologetic and confrontational in nature, and leant into US style ‘culture war’ rhetoric on a variety of topics. She has vocally opposed critical race theory, defended the actions of the British empire, and sought to amend the 2010 Equality Act to define sex as ‘biological’.
Badenoch’s victory has been a clear indication of the Conservative party moving towards the political right, calling for a “hard-nosed” approach to immigration and a rejection of “woke” politics. Her first months of leadership have not been considerably formative, instead focusing on attacking Labour’s “farm tax”, and unintentionally sparking an awkward debate in Westminster about sandwiches.
Time will tell how the new Tory party leader defines herself and her party politically, but what is certain, however, is the rightward shift in the Conservative party.
The Breakthrough of Reform UK
A clear political winner of 2024, however, has been Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which saw a stunning electoral breakthrough in July’s election. Despite only winning 5 seats in parliament, the party achieved over 4 million votes, totalling at 14.3% of the popular vote. Crucially, Reform UK proved instrumental in toppling hundreds of Tory majorities across the country, winning over 19% of the vote in 102 constituencies.
With Reform’s success in July fuelled by the Conservatives’ failure to reduce immigration, recent revised ONS figures show net immigration under the last government even higher than previously anticipated. Despite Tory dismissals that the party was a “protest vote” against Sunak’s Government, polling indicates that the party is enjoying increasing support, with the latest Opinium poll putting the party at 22%, only 1 point behind the Conservatives, and not far amiss from Labour’s 29%.
The past few months have demonstrated that even Labour are not safe from the Reform UK’s grasp. With calls from Farage that the party will now focus its efforts towards toppling Starmer, Reform have already made by-election gains from Labour.
Trump’s victory in November has only emboldened Reform’s momentum. Farage’s close friendship with Trump’s right hand man, X owner Elon Musk, has been followed by rumours that Musk is considering donating $100m to Reform UK, sparking a debate on UK political donation regulations.
Regardless of whether this comes to materialise, the Reform UK have had a considerable breakthrough in support this year, which may pressure the Tories to adopt a more right-wing agenda in order to win back lost voters. 2024 has proved that the party represents a serious cause, rather than a fringe movement, and if polling continues in this direction, it may nudge the next general election towards a three-way race.
Final Thought
2024 has been an eventful year in British politics, with the crushing defeat of the Conservative party, the first Labour Government in 14 years, and increasing electoral momentum from Reform UK, the political landscape bears little resemblance now to how it did in January. Labour’s radical budget has set a bold agenda for the new Government, and with a new Conservative leader further on the right, we may well be witnessing a sharper left-right divide in politics than in previous years.
Across the pond, Trump’s extraordinary political comeback to the presidency will have significant ramifications on our politics and may serve to fan the flames of the UK’s growing hard-right wing.
For further analysis of the political events of 2024 from Chamber UK, stay tuned here.
