Yesterday’s general election delivered both surprising and unsurprising results across the UK. This article analyses the outcomes and what they may signify for the future of Scottish independence, Northern Ireland’s political landscape, Labour’s performance, and the rise of third parties and independents.
The End of Scottish Independence?
In June 2022, Nicola Sturgeon proposed the idea that the general election would be treated as a “De-facto referendum” if Westminster denied the Scottish parliament the right to a referendum. This must’ve seemed like a very sensible strategy at a time where the SNP polled consistently 20% above Labour.
Unfortunately, the SNP have not won Scotland by a 20% margin. They have in fact, done quite badly. The SNP have lost 39 out of 48 seats, a proportionately greater fall than the Conservatives. Even when all pro-independence parties are combined, the vote share falls dramatically short of a majority.
This result is not unexpected for the SNP, with Humza Yousef backing away from the idea of a de-facto referendum. Whilst not reviving the pledge of a de-facto referendum, SNP leader Swinney has emphasised the role of an election in providing a mandate for a future referendum; something that was further walked back on a Sky News interview a day before the election.
John Swinney acknowledged the result as “very poor” but has reiterated his support for a second referendum. Swinney previously stepped down as leader in 2003 following a poor result in that year’s European Election. However, with him inheriting such poor polling numbers, as well as the SNP still holding the plurality in the Scottish Parliament, a leadership challenge seems unlikely.
Opinion polling on independence has not significantly moved despite the SNP’s unpopularity. In other words, Scottish independence is more popular than the SNP. Despite the SNP’s conflation of the election with independence, the defeat of the SNP doesn’t necessarily mean the end of independence. With the SNP’s popularity stalling and independence’s holding steady, pro-independence third parties such as the Greens will likely have renewed strength going into the 2026 election to the PR-based Scottish parliament.
Whilst this election shows that independence is not voters’ main priority, independence is likely to remain a significant movement into the foreseeable future.
Are Sinn Fein the big winners in Northern Ireland? No, but the DUP are the losers.
With the electoral landslides on the mainland, little attention has been paid to Northern Ireland. Most headlines have focused on the fact that Sinn Fein have more MPs than any party for the first time.
Whilst this is certainly a significant moment, Sinn Fein remain at 7 abstentionist MPs, the same as 2019. Whilst Sinn Fein hasn’t increased its seats, the DUP fell from 8 to 5, two to ‘unionist’ parties, and one to a ‘cross-community’ party.
Most notable was the unseating of Ian Paisley Jr, son of the unionist paramilitary leader of the same name. Paisley lost to a TUV candidate who argued that the man who once gave a speech opposing the Good Friday Agreement and to “exterminate” the IRA to a unionist paramilitary responsible for the deaths of 14 people wasn’t hardline enough on unionism. The DUP also suffered losses to the more moderate UUP party, and the cross-community, Alliance party.
Despite the unseating of a DUP MP, the results for the neutral Alliance party have been mixed. Polls consistently predicted an increase in alliance votes, with a poll in January even predicting a plurality, however, Alliance stayed stable at one seat and poll figures decline by 1%. Stephen Farry, previously Alliance’s only MP, was unseated by Alex Easton, an independent who resigned from the DUP which he criticised as having no “respect, discipline or decency”.
Alliance’s only victory was in Lagan Valley, the seat of former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson. Donaldson stepped down as leader of the DUP the day after his arrest in March. Despite appearing in court, the day before the election to be charged with a total of 18 sexual offenses, including four against minors, Donaldson saw his vote decline by only 6%.
Whilst the UUP were able to pull off an upset victory over the DUP last night, the tightness of Alliance’s victory over a candidate charged with rape and sexual assault makes it uncertain as to whether a constitutionally neutral party like Alliance will ever be able to appeal to all communities.
Did Labour Underperform?
With multiple MRP projections having the conservatives in the single digits of seats, the result, which sees the Conservatives remaining in place as the official opposition, is not quite as bad as the worst predictions.
The underperformance of Labour becomes more apparent when looking at Labour’s popular vote of 33.7%, a relative increase of 1.6% from 2019 and a relative drop of over half a million. This result was in part driven by low turnout, seeing the lowest turnout since 2001. Labour Party figures attempted to emphasise the idea that a Labor victory wasn’t guaranteed in order to prevent complacency among voters, however, it seems that few bought this line.
Labour’s majority was underwhelming; however, it still will grant the next government a great deal of power.
A Third-Party Election?
Perhaps the unexpected party victories tonight were for third parties.
The Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and Reform won their highest number of seats in history. LibDem results aligned with the most optimistic projections winning 71 seats, the same number of seats predicted by the June 24 poll which predicted the LibDems overtaking the Conservatives as the official opposition.
However, the 600% increase in LibDem seats came as a result of a 0.6% increase in the vote share. This is likely due to a combination of a vote increase A historic first, LibDem seats are almost proportional to their vote share, winning 11% of the seats with 12% of the vote. This could not be said of the Green and Reform Parties, whose 7% and 14% of the vote respectfully translated into 0.6% of the seats.
Given the lack of clear results in the form of MPs by Reform and Green, and the uniqueness of this election in the certainty of a labour victory, it remains unclear whether this third-party victory can be replicated in future elections.
Independents
Yesterday’s election was a record breaker in another way, with a record six independents elected to parliament, the largest since 1945. Five of the six made the Labour Party’s policy on Gaza a large focus of their campaign and, with the exception of Jeremy Corbyn, all candidates were not sitting MPs. Initially expected to be a mere vote splitter for Labour, the election of pro-Palestinian independents poses a change in the dynamics of parliament
Despite this strong result for independent candidates focused on Gaza, Rochdale MP George Galloway was unseated, who subsequently retweeted a tweet claiming that the election was “rigged”. Worker Party candidates failed to win any seats in comparison to their independent counterparts. This is most likely due to the number of controversies that surround Worker Party leader George Galloway, an association that independents avoid.
Final Thought
The recent election results mark a significant shift in the UK’s political landscape.
The SNP’s dramatic loss in Scotland raises questions about the immediate future of the independence movement, but it remains a significant force. In Northern Ireland, the DUP’s decline highlights changing dynamics within unionist politics, opening the door for more diverse representation.
Meanwhile, the historic gains for third parties and independents indicate a growing appetite for alternative voices in Parliament. This election may signify not an end, but a transformative period in British politics, with potential long-term impacts across the UK.
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This article was written by Chamber’s features writer, Alex Connor.
